Mizuho slashes MSTR target but still sees Strategy topping $200

Mizuho has lowered its price target for Strategy while maintaining an outperform rating, signaling that it still expects MSTR shares to climb above the $200 level despite the company's recent Bitcoin sale.

Summary

• Mizuho cut its MSTR price target to $213 but kept an outperform rating, still expecting shares to trade above $200.
• The revised target follows Strategy's $216 million Bitcoin sale, which left the company holding 843,775 BTC and $2.55 billion in cash reserves.
• Grayscale Research and several market commentators said the sale could strengthen Strategy's finances and improve its S&P 500 inclusion prospects.

Mizuho reduced its price target on Strategy to $213 from $265 after revising its Bitcoin price forecast to $71,500 by the end of 2027. Even with the lower target, the brokerage kept its outperform rating, indicating that it continues to see substantial upside for the Bitcoin treasury company's stock.

The revised target follows Strategy's decision to sell 3,588 Bitcoin for about $216 million, a transaction the company said would help fund dividend payments tied to its digital credit securities. After completing the sale, Strategy held 843,775 BTC alongside approximately $2.55 billion in U.S. dollar reserves.

Although the announcement initially weighed on market sentiment, MSTR recovered as Bitcoin rebounded above $63,000. The stock closed back above the psychological $100 level and traded around $101 in premarket trading, according to Yahoo Finance. Even so, MSTR remains down more than 34% since the start of the year as Bitcoin has struggled through the current bear market.

Analysts still expect substantial upside

Mizuho's revised forecast comes as analysts continue to debate whether Strategy's Bitcoin sale should be viewed as a sign of weakness or disciplined financial management. While the brokerage adjusted its long-term assumptions for Bitcoin prices, it did not change its positive stance on the stock.

Supporting that interpretation, Grayscale Research argued in a July 6 report that investors may have misread the transaction. As previously reported by crypto.news, the research firm said the sale strengthened Strategy's financial position rather than signaling financial distress.

According to Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl, the company's financing structure remains well supported despite concerns raised by some market participants. The report was published after Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $61,000 level following news of the sale before recovering above $63,000.

Grayscale also argued that improving Strategy's balance sheet could reduce concerns surrounding its financing model while creating conditions for a more stable Bitcoin market over time.

Bitcoin sale fuels S&P 500 inclusion debate

Beyond the balance sheet impact, several market commentators believe the transaction could improve Strategy's chances of joining the S&P 500.

Crypto researcher Ignas argued that the sale demonstrates Strategy's ability to generate liquidity during periods of Bitcoin weakness, something he believes could satisfy concerns previously raised by S&P Global.

According to Ignas, inclusion in the index would require passive index funds to purchase MSTR shares, potentially creating additional demand for the stock. He also suggested Strategy could eventually repurchase the Bitcoin it sold if such inclusion materializes.

Crypto commentator Zayn reached a similar conclusion. He argued that Strategy has addressed several issues that critics previously highlighted by building a sizeable U.S. dollar reserve, repurchasing convertible debt, and using Bitcoin sales to meet dividend obligations instead of relying on additional borrowing.

According to Zayn, those steps weaken claims that the company's financing model resembles a Ponzi scheme while demonstrating continued access to capital markets during a prolonged Bitcoin downturn.

Even after lowering its valuation target, Mizuho's latest note indicates the firm believes those financial changes leave room for MSTR shares to recover well beyond current trading levels if Bitcoin's long-term outlook improves.

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