Is Ethereum Approaching a Bottom? Analyzing CryptoQuant's Five Bottom Signals

● According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum (ETH) is trading below its on-chain average acquisition price (Realized Price), suggesting it may have entered a historically undervalued zone.

● Among five on-chain indicators comparing ETH/BTC, two have already reached levels comparable to past bottom zones, while the remaining three show signs of improvement.

● At Exwin, we believe that ETH is gaining medium- to long-term investment appeal, but it still requires further improvement to significantly outperform Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC Has Declined for About a Year—Market Continues to Experience "ETH Flight"

Since the summer of 2025, Bitcoin has continued to lead the cryptocurrency market.

With inflows into ETFs, increased Bitcoin holdings by companies, and ongoing regulatory developments in various countries, funds have concentrated on Bitcoin, causing ETH/BTC to drop from around 0.048 to approximately 0.028.

In other words, Ethereum has significantly underperformed Bitcoin for about a year.

However, there is a growing sentiment in the market that "the ETH that has been sold off this much may be nearing a bottom."

In this context, CryptoQuant conducted an analysis using multiple on-chain data to explore whether

"Ethereum is truly approaching a bottom."

According to CryptoQuant, ETH has already entered the 'undervalued zone'

The first aspect to confirm is the value of Ethereum alone.

CryptoQuant utilizes an on-chain indicator called "Realized Price."

This indicator reflects the average acquisition price of all market participants, allowing us to understand whether many investors are in profit or holding unrealized losses.

The current ETH price is around $1,900.

In contrast, the Realized Price is about $2,300, indicating that the market price is approximately 17% below the average acquisition price.

Historically, when the price falls below the Realized Price, the overall market tends to become pessimistic, with many investors holding unrealized losses.

However, such situations often see selling pressure gradually weaken, leading to medium- to long-term bottom formation.

Of course, this indicator alone cannot determine a bottom.

What becomes important is the "strength of ETH compared to Bitcoin."

Current Position from Five Indicators of ETH/BTC

CryptoQuant analyzes how attractive ETH is relative to Bitcoin using the following five indicators:

• ETH/BTC spot trading volume ratio
• ETH price vs. Realized Price
• ETH/BTC MVRV ratio (undervalued/overvalued)
• ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio (selling pressure)
• ETH/BTC ETF holding ratio (institutional investor demand)

Summarizing the current evaluations:

Spot Trading Volume is Already at Bottom Levels

The ETH/BTC spot trading volume ratio has dropped to about 0.5.

This level is nearly the same as past instances when ETH/BTC hit bottom, such as in 2020, 2023, and early 2025.

While market participants' interest has drastically decreased, historically, there have been many cases where funds return after such periods of stagnation.

ETH Price is Below Average Acquisition Price

Trading below the Realized Price is also a typical signal indicating undervaluation historically.

Currently, ETH is trading lower than the average acquisition price of market participants, suggesting that it is entering a phase where returns are more likely than risks in the medium to long term.

Some Indicators Still Under Improvement

On the other hand, there are still data points that are in the process of improvement before confirming a solid bottom.

MVRV Has Improved to Neutral

The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio rose to about 0.95 in August 2025, indicating a significantly overvalued state.

It has now decreased to about 0.65, alleviating the overheating sentiment considerably.

However, in past major bottoms, it had dropped to around 0.45, suggesting there is still room for further adjustment.

Selling Pressure Has Halved

The ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio exceeded 1.5 in 2025, with a large amount of ETH being sent to exchanges.

It has now decreased to about 0.8, significantly reducing selling pressure.

However, since it had dropped to around 0.4 at past bottoms, this indicates that while there is improvement, it has not yet confirmed a bottom.

Changes in ETF Demand

Interestingly, there are movements among institutional investors.

The ETH/BTC ETF holding ratio had been declining for about a year but has turned upward for the first time since late June 2026.

While this is not a significant change, it suggests that institutional investors may be gradually increasing their allocation to Ethereum again.

At Exwin

The most important point from this CryptoQuant report is not whether "ETH is cheap," but rather that the data indicates "the process of bottom formation is steadily progressing."

Two of the five key indicators have already reached past bottom zones, and the remaining three are moving in an improving direction.

This suggests a shift in market sentiment from "complete pessimism" to a stage where "selling is gradually drying up."

On the other hand, in past strong alt seasons, the MVRV and exchange inflow ratios of ETH/BTC often dropped further before significant capital inflows began.

Therefore, while it can be considered that "ETH is approaching an attractive price range" at this point, further data support is needed to definitively state that "ETH will significantly outperform Bitcoin."

At Exwin, we will continue to analyze not only prices but also on-chain data, institutional investor fund flows, ETF trends, and more to continuously verify the turning points in market cycles.