Stolen Bitcoin Selling Pressure Nears Zero, Benson Sun Claims ETH May Form Selling Pressure

Benson Sun's monitoring shows that in the recent Binance theft incident, the authorities have confirmed the freezing of approximately $2.5 billion in assets, accounting for about half of the total stolen amount. The remaining assets mainly consist of Bitcoin and ETH. The stolen Bitcoin is valued at around $1 billion, but due to the lack of deep mixing pools, the related addresses will be flagged by trading platforms and on-chain analysis companies, making it harder to liquidate compared to ETH. Reflecting on the 2016 Bitfinex theft where stolen Bitcoins remained untouched for years, and the case in July this year where approximately 1,800 Bitcoins stolen from Coldcard remained mostly inactive until early September, Benson Sun stated that the scale of this theft is larger. Splitting addresses and mixing coins to sell through OTC trading may take years, resulting in near-zero short-term selling pressure. If Binance uses SAFU to compensate and replenish Bitcoin, it could create buying pressure. In contrast, a large number of ERC-20 tokens converted into ETH and then entering Tornado Cash are harder to trace, potentially leading to market selling pressure in the scale of billions of dollars. Benson Sun believes that market confidence will be impacted, but the direct selling pressure from Bitcoin is not as significant as imagined, and he calls for the industry to face the security layout of hot wallet management, signature authorization, and quantum resistance in the post-AI era.

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