Bitcoin difficulty expected to rise 5.68% on Oct. 16, miners face revenue drop

Bitcoin miners are anticipating a 5.68% difficulty increase around Oct. 16, which may pressure equipment with low electricity margins. If Bitcoin's price, block subsidy, and average fees remain stable, expected revenue per unit of computing power could decrease by 5.37%. As of Oct. 14, the difficulty was 132.72 trillion and the hashprice was 39.77 per PH/day. For equipment using 20 joules per terahash and paying 8 cents per kWh, daily electricity costs are 38.40 per PH/s. The current revenue cushion of 1.37 will shrink to approximately 0.77 under the projected difficulty increase. There are 347 blocks remaining until the adjustment at block 971,712, with Bitcoin recalibrating difficulty every 2,016 blocks. Recent hashprice readings have fluctuated around 40, with a brief spike above that level. The projected difficulty rise would reduce the hashprice from 39.77 to about 37.63 per PH/day. This reduction reflects the inverse relationship between revenue and difficulty. For equipment consuming 20 joules per terahash, the maximum electricity tariff covered by gross revenue is expected to fall from 8.29 to 7.84 cents per kWh post-retarget. Equipment at 25 J/TH paying 6.5 cents per kWh or 30 J/TH at 5.5 cents per kWh will also face similar challenges. The impact of the adjustment will depend on the value of rewards per block following the retarget.

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